Market Update (SPY) for week ending 1/29

 


Background on dark pools can be found at this link.

Recap from Last Week

Looking at price action this week, those prints on 1/15 were buys, not sells.  That's why I put question marks on the charts.  Price is now above $22B in prints relative to Friday's close.  On 1/20, the boys at mission control printed about $1.6B in several tranches on the way up.  My guess is that they were juicing the market to the upside to distribute.  1/21 has $11.1B of prints, and now price is under that level.  Guessing that $11.1B is selling.  In the premarket on Friday, price caught on an old $5.4B print.  The current gravity point is $382.98 with $2.8B sitting there.  I expect to see more prints come in on Monday at this same level.  

This Week

On Monday and Tuesday, more prints came in at 384 and 383.  That brought the total to $27.2B over 383.  From what I've seen in the past, they like to hold the highs until the prints add up to about $30B, and then you see a move.  On Tuesday, I dropped 100% of my high beta longs and all 401K longs.  High beta stocks move much faster than the rate of the main indexes.  I also saw a $200M VXX print on Tuesday at the lows (that is extreme), but thought that my data source was incorrect.  It was not.   Wednesday had $6.5B prints at 374 that look like buys and Wednesday showed us a $6.3B print at 378 that looked like a sell.  Friday gave us 2 prints:

  • $5.2B 373
  • $2B    370.5
What's Next?

Aftermarket SPY price on Friday is under all the dark pool prints.  Price is also under the 50 day simple moving average and kissed the lower daily Bollinger band.  Those are bad omens.  The direction of the Friday prints are unknown at the moment.  The size of the Friday prints is not what I would consider preparation for a bullish move up.  Last week, they accumulated $22B before moving the market.  Now we get a total of $7.2B.  More prints could come in Monday at the lows though, as they can be 24 hours late.  Looking at RSI, SPY is getting oversold, but not to the extreme yet.  

I'll be watching for more prints to come in at the lows and also watching how price reacts to Friday's prints.

Weekly Pivots

373       R1
370.5    Pivot


If you want to look at the data for yourself, a Google sheet can be found this link.  I would love to see comments or get feedback.  My email is brian@royseonline.com.



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