Market Update (SPY) for week ending 1/22


 

Background on dark pools can be found at this link.

Recap from Last Week

Since Friday 1/8/2021, price is sitting under about $34.8 billion in block trades.  Typically, it's no good when you see a group of block trades then price goes under, another group of block trades then price goes under, and so on.  The boys may be distributing.  Price is nearing the daily SMA20, where traders are trained to buy.  The futures are trading today and ES bounced right there.

This Week

Looking at price action this week, those prints on 1/15 were buys, not sells.  That's why I put question marks on the charts.  Price is now above $22B in prints relative to Friday's close.  On 1/20, the boys at mission control printed about $1.6B in several tranches on the way up.  My guess is that they were juicing the market to the upside to distribute.  1/21 has $11.1B of prints, and now price is under that level.  Guessing that $11.1B is selling.  In the premarket on Friday, price caught on an old $5.4B print.  The current gravity point is $382.98 with $2.8B sitting there.  I expect to see more prints come in on Monday at this same level.  They often come in late, hence the name "dark pool".

So what does this data tell us?  My view is that the smart money constantly buys dips and takes profits at highs.  They don't bet $10 trillion on the lows and hold until right before a giant dump like most people think.  Looking this week, one could guess that they were positioned long about $22B with a cost basis of maybe $377.  They spent $1.6 juicing the market higher when people were happy about the inauguration, taking advantage of positive sentiment.    Then they dumped $11 billion on happy retail buyers.  

What's Next?

Price is under that $382.98 print, but not enough to matter.  That is our inflection point for Monday.  I have no idea what they want to do next.  Dark pool volume is not especially high this week though.

Weekly Pivots

Pivot                382.98

Support 1        381.25

Support 2        379.77

Support 3        378.72

Resistance 1    384.11


If you want to look at the data for yourself, a Google sheet can be found this link.  I would love to see comments or get feedback.  My email is brian@royseonline.com.

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