SPY Update for Week Ending 3/12/2021



Background on dark pools can be found at this link.

Recap from Last Week

On Monday, $2B more came in at the Friday low for a total of $4.1B at 380.   Then Monday and Tuesday prints came in totaling $15.4B at around 390.  Maybe they are building a new base after the dump to 380?  Wednesday is mostly "hidden" dark pool prints that come in after hours, $8.7B.  When that happens, look for a consolidation pattern for a target price.  A guess at price would be 385.  Then we see sell tranches going down to $381.24.  Monday and Tuesday prints are sells after seeing this.  Then Thursday high gets sold again.  $4B at 381.51 with more sell tranches going down to 372.60.  More after hours prints ($6.7B) and another consolidation pattern around 376.  Friday morning highs are sold, and we get a round trip back up over Thursday's high.  $4.1B at the low shows up and $2.9B at the high.  $4.4B after hours are printed, and that price is anyone's guess.  Price action would say they are at the lows, but Friday's chart has no reliable pattern to show were they might be. 

This Week

Monday saw $9.7B of buys at around 382, then another $1.4B at 383.75.  Then we see $6.3B in selling at 387.12.  On Tuesday, $4.9B of after hours prints show up with no consolidation pattern, so no idea where spot is on those.  Then on Wednesday, they appear to load the boat with $10.4B after significant selling on Tuesday.  The lift on Thursday looks like 100% retail action.  The dark pools wait to sell $4.3B at 395.  Friday sees $7.7B of trades in an old supply zone between 392.90 and 394.32.  That area will be our pivot for Monday.

The boys seem to be selling large blocks on the way up, more than usual.  It also looks like a good part of this lift is retail.  SPY is over the SMA20, so the trend is up.  They have not sold the usual $30B - $50B at the highs to make me all that worried.  Watch the pivots next week, and watch your stops, and watch volatility for clues.  

Bonus QQQ

Q's had about double normal volume of print activity on Tuesday and Friday.  Those block trades are in the sheet if you want to reconstruct a play by play.  If price action on Monday goes significantly over $318.23 that would be bullish.

Troublesome VXX Print

My app caught a $28M VXX print on Friday.  That's big and the trade price was very close to the low of the day.  $60M is a giant red flag that a dump is coming.  I'm not sure what to make of $28M.

Funny SPY Print

During RTH, a print came in for SPY at $417.80.  Sometimes prints like this come in and price eventually makes it to that spot.  They later sent another record indicating that was an erroneous trade, so I wouldn't trade based on that dollar amount.

Weekly Pivots

R1       $395.65
Pivot    $394.32
S1        $392
S2        $390

If you want to look at the data for yourself, a Google sheet can be found this link.  Retweet this link and follow me if you want to see more posts like this.

I've gotten a few questions about seeing these prints in real time.  For a $20 monthly Venmo payment, I will set you up on an email system that provides near real time updates on VXX, SPY, and QQQ.  That would also include access to the Google sheet with the data if Google provides authentication to your email system.  Ping me at brian@royseonline.com or @brianbalance on Twitter if you are interested. 

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