Market Update (SPY) for week ending 2/5

 


Background on dark pools can be found at this link.

Recap from Last Week

Aftermarket SPY price on Friday is under all the dark pool prints.  Price is also under the 50 day simple moving average and kissed the lower daily Bollinger band.  Those are bad omens.  The direction of the Friday prints are unknown at the moment.  The size of the Friday prints is not what I would consider preparation for a bullish move up.  Last week, they accumulated $22B before moving the market.  Now we get a total of $7.2B.  More prints could come in Monday at the lows though, as they can be 24 hours late.  Looking at RSI, SPY is getting oversold, but not to the extreme yet.  

This Week

Monday added $3.7B late Friday prints to the lows for a total of $8.5B at 370.5.  Then we see another $3.8B of what look to be buys.  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday have a consolidation pattern where they kept SPY in a tight $2.50 range with about $11B more activity there.  My theory is that a portion of the $5.1B at 383 was profit talking.  Nice to be able to sell and then rebuy $2.50 lower.  Then we get another $8B at 386 and $2.6B at 388.  Price seems to be holding at the 388 print for now.

What's Next?

SPY reacted strongly to the daily SMA 50 and blasted right through the SMA 20 to reach ATH's. Everyone on Twitter turned bullish.  Friday did not have abnormally high activity on volatility instruments, but we could see late prints on Monday.  From past experience, they like to distribute around $30 billion at highs before letting go.  Volume is decreasing on the rise, and the boys at mission control are not using much ammunition on this rally.  This week, the data doesn't show us a clear picture of the future.  Use the pivots as a guide and be careful.  






Individual Stocks

Looking at individual stocks, HFT's have been spiking price mostly in the premarket, and they are taking profits on every single spike in price.  Look at the SLV prints as an example.   Massive sell prints, $750M, at the highs.  Guess who bought that $750M?  Hint: it wasn't institutions.  Tuna eaten by the sharks perhaps.










Weekly Pivots

388       Pivot
386       S1
383       S2
381.5    S3

If you want to look at the data for yourself, a Google sheet can be found this link.  Retweet or follow me if you want to see more posts like this.

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